[AlexFL]

Originally Posted by SamS

Not irrelevant at all. I recently had the chance to buy a new car. Already owning a X3 M40i, I could have gone with an X3MC, or a Tesla M3P. I went with the Tesla, and couldn't be more happy.

It’s irrelevant, because Tesla model 3 is a compact sport sedan with a tiny trunk. X3 M is a family-oriented performance SUV with a proper trunk. I’m surprised people cross-shop these two vehicles. Nobody buys an X3 M to run drag races against Teslas. Model Y comparisons are more appropriate. Tesla 3p owners should wait until the next M3 comes out.

As above, these cars will continue to be cross-shopped. I still own the X3 M40i. And owning two previous M3s, I know what a sports car feels like. The Tesla is insane.

I also know how a sports car feels like and... no, it doesn’t feel like a Tesla. Those performance Teslas are like insanely fast roller coasters. They are fun and breathtaking. I understand. But there is much more to sports cars than being fast... let’s just leave it that.

If I was BMW, I would be shitting right now. iX3 is not going to take any buyers away from the Model Y.

If I was Tesla, I would be shitting right now. Because the Germans, and others, are about to eat Tesla’s lunch. Taycan is arguably better than Model S P100D. Merc’s EQC is a great vehicle (got a chance to drive one in Norway). It’s slower than the performance Teslas, but far more refined and luxurious. Audi with their great looking e-Tron vehicles and an RS version of the E-Tron GT is coming. Volvo’s Polestar 2 is fast, looks extremely promising (Model 3 competitor) and Polestar 3 will be a Tesla Y competitor. BMW’s iX3 mostly targets the Chinese market. Watch out for iNext and i4. i4 will be an M3-like performance sedan (can’t wait!). Rivian’s SUV and truck look very intriguing. Hopefully they get to actually produce them. Importantly, all these cars have a more conventional cockpit with an actual instrumental cluster. I truly hate Tesla 3’s cockpit. That cheap steering wheel is the worst part. And why am I supposed to constantly stare at that massive central screen? That’s really bothersome. And why do their performance versions get exactly the same exterior?

To summarize, Tesla is about to get 👾👾👾 (even though the Tesla fans don’t realize it).

[SamS]

Originally Posted by AlexFL

It’s irrelevant, because Tesla model 3 is a compact sport sedan with a tiny trunk. X3 M is a family-oriented performance SUV with a proper trunk. I’m surprised people cross-shop these two vehicles. Nobody buys an X3 M to run drag races against Teslas. Model Y comparisons are more appropriate. Tesla 3p owners should wait until the next M3 comes out.

They're closer than you think. The backseat of the Tesla is more manageable for "families" (I have two kids) than the X3. The trunk storage is closer than most would imagine. I literally have both Model 3 and X40i sitting my garage this minute. Don't underestimate the Tesla frunk for takeout food, etc.!

Originally Posted by AlexFL

I also know how a sports car feels like and... no, it doesn’t feel like a Tesla. Those performance Teslas are like insanely fast roller coasters. They are fun and breathtaking. I understand. But there is much more to sports cars than being fast... let’s just leave it that.

Okey to each his own.

Originally Posted by AlexFL

If I was Tesla, I would be shitting right now. Because the Germans, and others, are about to eat Tesla’s lunch. Taycan is arguably better than Model S P100D. Merc’s EQC is a great vehicle (got a chance to drive one in Norway). It’s slower than the performance Teslas, but far more refined and luxurious. Audi with their great looking e-Tron vehicles and an RS version of the E-Tron GT is coming. Volvo’s Polestar 2 is fast, looks extremely promising (Model 3 competitor) and Polestar 3 will be a Tesla Y competitor. BMW’s iX3 mostly targets the Chinese market. Watch out for iNext and i4. i4 will be an M3-like performance sedan (can’t wait!). Rivian’s SUV and truck look very intriguing. Hopefully they get to actually produce them. Importantly, all these cars have a more conventional cockpit with an actual instrumental cluster. I truly hate Tesla 3’s cockpit. That cheap steering wheel is the worst part. And why am I supposed to constantly stare at that massive central screen? That’s really bothersome. And why do their performance versions get exactly the same exterior?

To summarize, Tesla is about to get ������ (even though the Tesla fans don’t realize it).

Bookmark this post for a revisit in 2 years. the iNext and i4 will never be more than a dent in BMW's sales, much less the market as a whole. Same with the other examples you gave. BTW the steering wheel in my Model 3 is much nicer than the steering wheel in my X3 M40i. Granted, I don't have the M-sport wheel (BMW screwed the MY2018 buyers), but neither do the majority of BMWs sold. In other words, the regular Tesla steering wheel is much better than the one on the average BMW.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by AlexFL

If I was Tesla, I would be shitting right now ... Taycan is arguably better than Model S P100D.

That statement right there is why Tesla deliveries will j-curve for the next decade and why Tesla has no competitors, only potential partners.

(1.) Tesla created the EV market, beat everyone to the market, and has "arguably better" technology than anyone in the market - and that tech gap is only growing, with Tesla being the mainstream EV brand and everyone else niche.

(2.) Further, Tesla is the only major auto manufacturer with a fully functioning factory in China - that's already sending out deliveries! - thus creating and beating every competitor to market in the largest market. again.

(3.) And even further, the only thing the Germans will do - or any new EV supplier - is grow the EV market Tesla is already the leader in. Every customer that buys EV will consider a Tesla, and/or their network will.

(4.) Not to mention Tesla won the talent war: Tesla is about to bring Gigafactory 4 online in Germany and guess who Germans want to work for more? Tesla is going to steal all the German (and global) engineering talent.

"I am optimistic that young people from all over Germany and far beyond want to take part in this project"
- Jorg Steinbach, Economics Minister of Brandenburg, Germany

And the Universum 2019 Global survey ranked engineering students choices:

And when it comes to software, according to Hired.com's 2019 global survey guess who's the top CEO software talent wants to work for?

And major investors like Kevin O'Leary and Jim Cramer are finally recognizing the talent war has been won - it's over and the Germans didn't win:

“Colleges and universities around the world with an engineering department generally puts forward an electric Formula 1 car and engineering teams in their graduating years race these cars all over the world.

I’ve been hanging out at the pits with these engineers, and I’ve learned something extraordinary. When you go to one of these races… when the race is over, the winning team — they come from anywhere on Earth — who do they want to talk to?

They want to talk to the Tesla hiring team there; the HR people hanging around at the pits. Every one of these engineers, the smoking hot kids that sit with their cars, the men and women that sleep with them for 24 hours a day; it’s an unusual culture I’ve never seen before.

They all want to work at Tesla. Why? Because the teams are six to eight people. If they go to a legacy car company, they get drowned out in the back somewhere. These smart, young, men and women make a big difference as interns. I can’t believe the access to talent they have. That’s why I bought the stock"
-- Kevin O'Leary

(5.) And finally, Tesla isn't a car company; it's an EV technology company: power, software, manufacturing. The Germans - and all global EV manufacturers - will buy from Tesla.

So Tesla has already won, and smart money* has finally realized it.

*Note: I'm not a Tesla fan, don't own, nor have ever owned a Tesla, don't plan to own a Tesla, and have never invested, nor plan to invest in Tesla. I'm not smart money. But I am a business analyst and product guy.

[AlexFL]

Good morning! Just checked Tesla’s latest net “income” numbers... how are they still alive 😂🙈???

[onfireX5]

Originally Posted by AlexFL

Good morning! Just checked Tesla’s latest net “income” numbers... how are they still alive 😂🙈???

Checkmate.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by AlexFL

Good morning! Just checked Tesla’s latest net “income” numbers... how are they still alive ����???

I sure hope you don't invest your own money Alex ... FYI:

(1.) Here's what a decade of a tech disruptor company looks like as it pivots to profit



(2.) Here's what the stock price of a new-tech disruptor looks like as it consumes the industry free capital




they're still alive because investors recognize them as the leading brand of new tech that's going to consume an entire industry - which Tesla invented.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by onfireX5

Checkmate.

Yup, for Tesla.

It's interesting to look at another company that was reviled for years, Amazon:

Amazon over 20 years as it uses new tech to consume retail:
Note that it took a full decade for people to realize the legacy industry was in trouble, and we're talking retail monsters like Target Corporation



Tesla over 10 years as it uses new tech to consume autos:
Tesla is competing with an industry already in trouble



Do you guys think Tesla is going to deliver FEWER cars next year? Extrapolate it out:

* The only reason you don't see more Teslas is BECAUSE TESLA CAN'T MEET DEMAND!

* And now, not only is Tesla bringing online more capacity in the US, but also in Europe and Asia

* And what happens when you j-curve production and sales? Revenue goes up, profits go up, prices go down

* And what happens when prices go down? SALES GO UP!

* And where are we likely to have new tech breakthroughs? batteries. What happens to prices? Down. What happens when prices go down? Sales go up!

Getting the picture?

All over but the tears.

[onfireX5]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Yup, for Tesla.

It's interesting to look at another company that was reviled for years, Amazon:

Amazon over 20 years as it uses new tech to consume retail:
Note that it took a full decade for people to realize the legacy industry was in trouble, and we're talking retail monsters like Target Corporation



Tesla over 10 years as it uses new tech to consume autos:
Tesla is competing with an industry already in trouble



Do you guys think Tesla is going to deliver FEWER cars next year? Extrapolate it out:

* The only reason you don't see more Teslas is BECAUSE TESLA CAN'T MEET DEMAND!

* And now, not only is Tesla bringing online more capacity in the US, but also in Europe and Asia

* And what happens when you j-curve production and sales? Revenue goes up, profits go up, prices go down

* And what happens when prices go down? SALES GO UP!

* And where are we likely to have new tech breakthroughs? batteries. What happens to prices? Down. What happens when prices go down? Sales go up!

Getting the picture?

All over but the tears.

I got the same picture watching ENRON. They were taking over the world....only people in the way would become future partners, etc., etc.....I actually HOPE you are correct and I am wrong as the Market in general will take a huge emotional correction if Tesla keeps borrowing and losing money as they have for the past 10 years. Not good for anyone.

[AlexFL]

Originally Posted by onfireX5

I got the same picture watching ENRON. They were taking over the world....only people in the way would become future partners, etc., etc.....I actually HOPE you are correct and I am wrong as the Market in general will take a huge emotional correction if Tesla keeps borrowing and losing money as they have for the past 10 years. Not good for anyone.

Tesla will eventually run out of money and Elon will sell the company to Amazon or Google. Tesla will eventually become profitable, but they will not dominate the EV market. They will compete with the Germans in the luxury segment. The cheap mainstream EV market will be dominated by VW, Japan, Ford/GM, and Hyundai/Kia.

[SamS]

I want to be sure and make sure my next comment is completely on-topic (although it’s obvious I agree with GrussGott information above):

When I considered a new car (again, X3MC vs. Tesla), it was obvious to me that Tesla fundamentally thinks about cars differently. I don’t mean battery vs. ICE. I mean they delivery better performance/features after initial sale. More power, more tech features, more fun/entertainment, more safety features, etc. And free! Well, except for the recent “more power” option, which would be reasonably expected.

Do we think VW, GM, Ford, BMW plan to delivery enhancements to vehicles after delivery? A couple of years ago, it was a big deal when BMW delivered OTA map updates. But that’s basically all BMW has done for us. Tesla has literally given me 3 OTA updates in the first 7 days I owned the car. One was for features, one was for map updates, and third was for bug fixes.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by onfireX5

I got the same picture watching ENRON.

Excellent point with Enron - there is a possibility that Tesla is cooking books and/or other engaged in Skilling-like shenanigans.

Originally Posted by AlexFL

Tesla will eventually run out of money

That possibility - with the exception above - disappeared 6 months ago with the success of the Model 3, the launch of Model Y production, and the first deliveries from Gigafactory 3 in China last month.

Here's why:

Existing ICE auto businesses can't (and don't!) compete with Tesla or Rivian for the same reason Target and Walmart didn't (and don't) compete with Amazon - they're totally different business models. Amazon simply took their adjacent-channel growth before Target or Walmart ever got started, and now they all benefit from online retail growth, but Amazon disproportionately so. (side note: did you know the original Target.com was actually white-labeled and run by Amazon! Yeah, that's how stupid Target was)

Tesla has simply taken the adjacent-product growth from the ICE auto companies before they ever got there, and now EV market growth will benefit them all, but Tesla & Rivian disproportionately so.

Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory 4 will take all of the German engineering talent because duh: new teams in a growing company in a new industry! Easy to get promoted, stock is worth something.

Existing ICE companies can, at best, keep up with Tesla & Rivian - we saw the same thing in retail with Walmart buying Jet and Target pulling back from the brink (I still think Target's in trouble, but that's another thread )

Side note:
Back before AWS here was all the critique of Amazon before people realized they could raise prices 1 penny and make billions (Tesla is the same except with volume and tech dispersion)

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by SamS

Do we think VW, GM, Ford, BMW plan to delivery enhancements to vehicles after delivery? A couple of years ago, it was a big deal when BMW delivered OTA map updates. But that’s basically all BMW has done for us. Tesla has literally given me 3 OTA updates in the first 7 days I owned the car. One was for features, one was for map updates, and third was for bug fixes.

so this.

JC, former Tesla Bear, on Dec 19th explains why the Tesla critiques are wrong, 3:18: