Quote:
Originally Posted by Z4inAZ
You sure the yen wont be going up soon? I know it got hit hard after the tsunami and has all but rebounded to its pre-tsunami figures, but what makes you so confident in it continuing to go down? (serious question, not trying to be rude or anything)
As far as I can tell their economy is rebounding but I do not have a lot of first hand experience so I am legitimiately curious what your experience says and why you think that will be a good investment.
Im looking to make some more investments soon so if it sounds good to me I may take your advice on this. I have been considering investing in foreign currency but dont know enough about it, I have been trading stocks my whole life :dunno
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Here is my personal opinion on this. Japan is very expensive and in order for the Japanese to be able to compete their YEN has to weaken or they can not compete with other countries. As we know their economy has been up the creek for quite some time now and not until the YEN went from under 80 to around 100 did things improve for their manufacturers. I reckon that their manufacturers won't be able to turn around and post a profit until they are around 110. The government stimulus package has been bailing out all the manufactures for quite some time now. Short term the YEN may go back to 95 or 90 but long term I am quite sure we see 105-110 again. If things get ugly I would not be surprised to see 120-140 again. Being safe 105-110 is not out of the question.
Thailand has huge problems now and I expect their currency to weaken substantially some time soon. The government is having to pay all the rice producers to keep the country stable and now they are at a huge loss with all this rice sitting there that they are having difficulty selling because rice from Cambodia and Vietnam is cheaper. So they too will let their currency weaken so that they can compete with their neighbors and cut their losses. With growth numbers and export numbers slowing here in Asia currency devaluation is most likely to take place.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/B...Newcastle.aspx
http://english.caixin.com/2012-03-23/100372177_all.html